Atlantic Mackerel Quota Uncertainty: EU Sets a Provisional Catch Limit for the First Half of 2026
EU fisheries ministers closed their December quota talks with a clear “special case” for Atlantic mackerel: no full-year TAC was agreed, so the EU approved provisional catch limits for the first six months of 2026 while negotiations among Northeast Atlantic coastal states continue.
This is a rare outcome for one of Europe’s most commercially important pelagic species and one that matters directly to the frozen mackerel trade—from whole round frozen mackerel to frozen fillets supplying retail, foodservice, and processing channels—because it sets the regulatory framework for landings at the start of the new year, while the overall annual ceiling remains unresolved.
What EU ministers agreed on 13 December 2025
In its official summary of the Council deal on fishing opportunities, the Council of the EU stated that consultations on mackerel among Northeast Atlantic coastal states were still ongoing. Because of that, ministers agreed provisional catch limits for the first six months of 2026, explicitly pending agreement on a full TAC.
Two additional details in the Council text define the shape of this interim arrangement:
- The provisional limits are “in accordance with scientific advice (-70%)”.
- Given the seasonality of the mackerel fishery, the Council set the provisional catch limits at 90% of the level advised for the period
The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (DG MARE) described the same situation in its own news release: “no TAC has been set for mackerel” despite the EU’s efforts in consultations, and the EU therefore set a provisional quota for the first six months of 2026 based on a provisional TAC in line with ICES advice.
In other words, the EU’s 2026 quota regulation starts with a temporary mackerel ceiling because the wider international process did not conclude in time for the Council meeting.
The number behind the “provisional” label
The Council and Commission summaries describe the approach (first half of 2026; science-based; seasonal adjustment), but an industry briefing circulating immediately after the Council meeting put a number on the EU’s preliminary ceiling.
That document also notes that, separately, the UK, Norway, the Faroe Islands and Iceland concluded a partial mackerel arrangement on 16 December, and that those four parties indicated 299,010 tonnes “should represent the Total Allowable Catch” for 2026.
Those figures illustrate why the EU is calling this a “provisional” situation: the EU has an interim ceiling for the first half of the year while other coastal states are moving forward with their own approach to a full-year limit.
What the scientific advice says for 2026 (and why the EU references a ~70% cut)
The Council and Commission both tie the provisional EU approach to ICES advice. ICES’ advice database entry for the Northeast Atlantic mackerel stock (stock code mac.27.nea) states that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2026 should be no more than 174,357 tonnes.
ICES’ published advice document (30 September 2025) adds key context about the stock status driving that headline number:
- Fishing pressure is above FMSY and FPA.
- Spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim
The ICES advice materials also show why “reduction” language is appearing in EU policy messaging. In the ICES catch-scenario table, the “ICES basis advice” scenario (174,357 tonnes) is shown alongside an estimated total catch in 2025 of 755,143 tonnes, and a note that there is no internationally agreed TAC for 2025
Within the same ICES scenario table, the “change in advice” is shown as -70% relative to the advice value for 2025 (576,958 tonnes), and the change relative to estimated 2025 catches is even steeper (the table shows -77% versus that 2025 catch estimate).
That is the technical foundation for why the Council text references a -70% scientific-advice signal in the context of mackerel.
Why mackerel is “stuck” this year: coastal-state talks not concluded
The EU’s Commission release frames the unresolved TAC as a consultation problem: it says no TAC has been set for mackerel despite the EU’s “best efforts to engage in meaningful consultations.” The same text notes that at the Council meeting, several member states pointed to the status of the stock and to overfishing and lack of cooperation from certain non-EU countries, and some called for the Commission to apply Regulation (EU) No 1026/2012 on unsustainable fishing to defend EU rights and protect pelagic stocks.
This matters in practice because Northeast Atlantic mackerel is not managed by the EU alone. It is a shared, migratory stock, and the annual “headline” TAC is normally the product of coastal-state consultations that aim to align catch limits across the main participants. When that alignment fails, the result is a patchwork of interim measures and competing reference points—exactly what December 2025 produced.